How Did We Do? Top Ten Pennsylvania Primary Upset Predictions

Posted by By at 25 April, at 09 : 05 AM Print

  • Congressional District 4: Wrong
    Prediction: Commissioner Chris Reilly (R) tops Rep. Scott Perry (R).
    Deciding factors: Money and Scott Wagner.
    Perry: 53.7%
  • Congressional District 17: Right
    Prediction: Attorney Matt Cartwright (D) unseats Rep. Tim Holden (I).
    Deciding factors: Environment, health care and nasty ads.
    Cartwright: 57.3%
  • Senate District 29: Wrong
    Prediction: Businessman John Rich (R) defeats Senator David Argall (I).
    Deciding factors: Pay raise of 2005; Senate Republican Caucus apathy.
    Argall: 54.3%
  • Senate District 37: Right
    Prediction: Businessman D. Raja (R) upends Rep. Mark Mustio (R).
    Deciding factor: Racism.
    Raja: 43.7%
    ; Means: 31.6%,  Mustio: 24.7%
  • House District 50: TBD
    Prediction: Bill DeWeese (D) resign his seat in the morning, sentenced in the afternoon and renominated in the evening.
    Deciding factors: Denial; absence of party leadership.
    received 3,054 votes; Republican candidates netted: 2,240.
  • House District 79: Right
    Prediction: Professor John McGinnis (R) teaches state Rep. Rick Geist (I) a lesson in grass roots politics.
    Deciding factors: Pay raise of 2005 + 17 terms in office = pink slip.
    McGinnis: 51.9%
  • House District 92: Right
    Five Republicans are vying for this open seat including Anthony Pugliese (son of prominent lobbyist Rocco Pugliese) and William Sieg (nephew of Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Jake Corman).
    Prediction: Mike Regan wins the race and puts the kids in time out.
    Deciding factors: Experience and community roots; plus Regan looks like Scott Brown’s stunt double.
    Regan: 35.7%
  • House District 93: Wrong
    Prediction: Trucker Ernie Merisotis (R) ousts Ron Miller (I).
    Deciding factor: Scott Wagner.
    Miller: 59.9%
  • House District 103: Right.
    Prediction: Bill Cluck will get 300 Republican write-in signatures.
    Deciding factors: Crowded democratic primary; name recognition.
    Qualified for the ballot but subject to review.
  • House District 104: Right
    Prediction: Sue Helm (I) holds off “endorsed” candidate Jenna Lewis.
    Deciding factors: “Upper End” and Ron Marsico’s kiss of death.
    Helm: 60.8%
  • House District 112: Right
    Prediction: Kevin Haggerty (D) defeats Representative Ken Smith (D).
    Deciding factors:  Smith’s failure to repay a dime of more than $130,000 plus in personal loans in two years and his  failure to report the money on ethics’ statements.
    Haggerty: 51.9%

D = Democrat
I = Incumbent
R = Republican

Photo by ¡Viva la Cynthia!


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This post was written by:
- who has written 353 posts for Rock The Capital
Eric J. Epstein is RocktheCapital‘s coordinator and a community advocate for good government for over 25 years. Mr. Epstein is also Chairman of the Three Mile Island Alert, Inc., a safe-energy organization founded in 1977; President of EFMR Monitoring Group, Inc., a non-profit economic development corporation established in 1977, and Chairman of the Stray Winds Area Neighbors (SWAN), a smart growth association organized in 2005. Mr. Epstein was a Visiting Assistant Professor of Humanities at PSU-Harrisburg (1992-1999) and co-authored the Dictionary of the Holocaust, which was released by Greenwood Press (1997) - Email Eric Epstein

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